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Communicating weather forecast uncertainty: Do individual differences matter?

Margaret A Grounds¹, Susan L Joslyn¹

¹Department of Psychology, University of Washington.

Journal of Experimental Psychology. Applied

|March 30, 2018

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Probabilistic weather forecasts improve decision-making for most people. Numeracy, a measure of quantitative reasoning, was the key factor in effectively using these forecasts for better weather-related decisions.

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Area of Science:

Cognitive Psychology
Decision Science
Meteorology

Background:

Numeric probabilities enhance weather-related decision-making.
Individual differences in utilizing probabilistic forecasts are not well understood.

Purpose of the Study:

To assess cognitive and demographic factors influencing the use of probabilistic weather forecasts.
To determine the relationship between these factors and improved decision quality.

Main Methods:

Two studies involved participants making decisions about road de-icing based on temperature forecasts.
Forecast formats included temperature alone, probability of freezing, and expected value advice.

Main Results:

Probabilistic forecasts improved decisions for all participants except those with very low numeracy.
Numeracy was the strongest predictor of decision quality across all forecast formats.
No participant group made worse decisions when probabilities were included.

Conclusions:

Probabilistic weather forecasts are effective for public communication of weather hazards.
Numeracy plays a crucial role in leveraging forecast uncertainty for optimal decision-making.
The benefits of probabilistic forecasts may stem from general decision strategies rather than just forecast comprehension.