An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1-Decision Support System.

Area of Science:

• Disaster Management
• Operations Research
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Hurricane evacuation decision-making is complex, involving dynamic human-natural system interactions and uncertainty.
• Previous evacuation models have not fully captured these critical dynamics, limiting their effectiveness.
• Effective hurricane evacuation planning requires integrated approaches to hazard assessment, population behavior, and traffic management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce a novel integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework for hurricane evacuation decision support.
• To explicitly model the dynamics, uncertainty, and human-natural system interactions inherent in hurricane evacuations.
• To provide a robust decision-making tool that balances minimizing risk and travel time.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a multistage stochastic programming model to integrate hazard, population behavior, and traffic dynamics.
• Represented hurricane hazards using an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios.
• Modeled population behavior with a dynamic decision model and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model.

Main Results:

• The ISE framework generates evacuation order recommendations that minimize both risk and travel times.
• The framework provides a well-hedged, robust solution that accounts for hurricane evolution uncertainty.
• Demonstrated the framework's application and comparative performance using a case study from Hurricane Isabel (2003).

Conclusions:

• The ISE framework represents an advancement in hurricane evacuation modeling by integrating multiple complex factors.
• The approach effectively balances competing objectives of risk reduction and travel time minimization.
• The framework highlights the value of adaptive decision-making under increasing information during hurricane events.