Fibrosis-4 index predicts cirrhosis risk and liver-related mortality in 2075 patients with chronic HBV infection

Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) is a surrogate marker for hepatic fibrosis in hepatitis B virus (HBV) carriers.

To investigate whether FIB-4 index stratifies the risks of adverse liver events.

A total of 2075 treatment-naïve, noncirrhotic the patients with chronic HBV infection were included. Most of them (82.1%) were HBeAg-negative patients and their baseline FIB-4 levels were explored to stratify the risks of cirrhosis, cirrhosis-related complications and liver-related mortality.

During a mean follow-up period of 15.47 years, we found a higher baseline FIB-4 index was associated with increased incidence rates of cirrhosis in addition to the common host and viral factors. Patients with FIB-4 >1.29, compared to those with FIB-4 <1.29, were associated with increased risks of cirrhosis, cirrhosis-related complications and liver-related mortality with the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 6.19 (4.76-8.05), 6.88, (3.68-12.86) and 7.79, (4.54-13.37) respectively. Within the first 3 years of follow-up, FIB-4 remained stable and its kinetics were consistently associated with the develoopment of adverse liver events. Furthermore, FIB-4 index of 1.29 was able to stratify all the risks of adverse liver events even in HBeAg-negative patients with a low risk of disease progression (HBV DNA <2000 IU/mL, HBsAg <1000 IU/mL and ALT <40 U/L). Only 1 patient with FIB-4 index <1.29 developed cirrhosis but not other events within 15 years of follow-up.

In noncirrhotic patients with chronic HBV infection, a higher FIB-4 index was associated with increased risks of adverse liver events. FIB-4 index <1.29 is useful for the prediction of the lowest risks of disease progression.