A framework for identifying and selecting long term adaptation policy directions for deltas

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Adaptation
• Coastal Management

Background:

• Deltas are vulnerable to significant environmental and socio-economic changes, including climate variability, sea-level rise, and human interventions.
• Decisions regarding delta futures and adaptation investments are critical for enabling resilience to climate change.
• Existing adaptation strategies in deltas vary, necessitating a structured approach to evaluate future options.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present a framework for identifying and evaluating long-term adaptation strategies in deltas.
• To analyze trade-offs associated with different adaptation policy directions.
• To support policymakers in decision-making for delta resilience.

Main Methods:

• A three-step process involving literature searches for current and potential adaptations and government policies.
• Development of future adaptation policy narratives considering investment costs and required political effort.
• Exploration of trade-offs within policy directions using a collaborative expert workshop and subjective weighting.

Main Results:

• Identification of current policy-led adaptation actions and potential transformational adaptations in deltas.
• Development of distinct future adaptation policy directions with associated costs and political feasibility.
• Quantification of trade-offs within each policy direction through expert consensus.

Conclusions:

• The developed framework assists policymakers in understanding the range of adaptation options available for deltas.
• It facilitates consideration of willingness for significant policy changes and transformative adaptation initiatives.
• The process supports informed decision-making for long-term delta sustainability and climate resilience.