A New Model for Birth Weight Prediction Using 2- and 3-Dimensional Ultrasonography by Principal Component Analysis: A...

To establish a new model for birth weight prediction using 2- and 3-dimensional ultrasonography (US) by principal component analysis (PCA).

Two- and 3-dimensional US was prospectively performed in women with normal singleton pregnancies within 7 days before delivery (37-41 weeks' gestation). The participants were divided into a development group (n = 600) and a validation group (n = 597). Principal component analysis and stepwise linear regression analysis were used to develop a new prediction model. The new model's accuracy in predicting fetal birth weight was confirmed by the validation group through comparisons with previously published formulas.

A total of 1197 cases were recruited in this study. All interclass and intraclass correlation coefficients of US measurements were greater than 0.75. Two principal components (PCs) were considered primary in determining estimated fetal birth weight, which were derived from 9 US measurements. Stepwise linear regression analysis showed a positive association between birth weight and PC1 and PC2. In the development group, our model had a small mean percentage error (mean ± SD, 3.661% ± 3.161%). At least a 47.558% decrease in the mean percentage error and a 57.421% decrease in the standard deviation of the new model compared with previously published formulas were noted. The results were similar to those in the validation group, and the new model covered 100% of birth weights within 10% of actual birth weights.

The birth weight prediction model based on 2- and 3-dimensional US by PCA could help improve the precision of estimated fetal birth weight.