[Multidimensional approaches for risk stratification in transplantation]

Despite considerable progress in the short-term outcomes of renal transplantation, there has been little improvement over the last 15years on long-term survival. The main limitation is the lack of precise knowledge of the determinants of renal allograft loss and robust prognostic systems providing an individual prediction. Kidney transplantation must address a pressing clinical need to accurately define the determinants of kidney renal allograft survival in order to improve risk stratification. To achieve this goal, four steps need to be considered in the development of prognostic tools: the characterization and identification of the phenotype of the pathology, the assessment of prognostic factors of the event of interest in the population, the assessment of the additional value provided by a newly identified prognostic factor to conventional factors already known in clinical practice as well as the construction of prognostic tools, on the basis of multidimensional integrative models allowing a precise stratification of the risk, at individual and population scale.