Subjective Confidence Predicts Information Seeking in Decision Making.

Area of Science:

• Cognitive psychology
• Neuroscience
• Decision science

Background:

• Subjective confidence is crucial for decision-making, but its distinct role is hard to isolate due to its correlation with objective accuracy.
• Understanding confidence's function is key to explaining how individuals navigate uncertainty and optimize choices.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the unique function of subjective confidence in decision-making.
• To determine if subjective confidence predicts information-seeking behavior independently of objective accuracy.

Main Methods:

• A perceptual decision task was designed with conditions matched for accuracy but varied in evidence strength and variability to dissociate confidence from accuracy.
• Participants (N=20, replicated with N=50) could choose to seek additional information before making a decision.

Main Results:

• Confidence was lower when evidence variability was high, even when accuracy was matched, demonstrating a dissociation between confidence and accuracy.
• Participants with lower subjective confidence were significantly more likely to seek additional information before responding.

Conclusions:

• Subjective confidence plays a distinct and predictive role in information-seeking behavior during decision-making.
• These findings highlight confidence as a critical metacognitive signal that guides exploration and learning in uncertain environments.