Mitigation gambles: uncertainty, urgency and the last gamble possible

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Environmental Ethics
• Socioeconomics

Background:

• Current climate policies involve less ambitious carbon emission mitigation.
• This approach poses significant, unavoidable risks to future generations.
• Economic benefits for the present generation are minor compared to potential future losses.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the ethical and practical justifications for less ambitious carbon emission mitigation.
• To address objections concerning negative emissions and poverty alleviation.
• To underscore the necessity of ambitious climate action.

Main Methods:

• Ethical analysis of intergenerational equity in climate policy.
• Economic assessment of mitigation costs and benefits.
• Review of scientific literature on climate tipping points and renewable energy economics.

Main Results:

• Less ambitious mitigation imposes disproportionate risks on future generations.
• Objections based on negative emissions fail to account for irreversible tipping points.
• Renewable energy is becoming cost-competitive, challenging the fossil fuel dependency for poverty alleviation.

Conclusions:

• Delaying ambitious climate mitigation is ethically unjustifiable.
• Future recovery via negative emissions is uncertain and risky.
• Ambitious mitigation is compatible with, and increasingly supportive of, global poverty alleviation efforts.