Prognostic factors for long-term survival after adult liver transplantation

Prognostic factors for survival ≥ 15 years and life years lost after liver transplantation are largely unknown.

One thousand six hundred thirty primary adult liver transplants between 1983 and 2014 were analyzed. Risk factors for survival were identified with multivariable Cox regression and subsequently tested for their relevance as prognostic factors for observed 15-year survival using multivariable logistic regression and c statistics. The difference of life expectancy between a matched national reference population and survival in patients with post-transplant survival ≥ 15 years was calculated.

Survival of ≥ 15 years was observed in 361 patients (22%). Sixty-nine adults died after more than 15 years losing a median of 15 years of life expectancy. One of those patients lived longer while 292 patients still have the chance to survive longer than their normal life expectancy. The indication primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) and later eras of transplantation were identified as significant independent protective factors while recipient age > 36.8 years, graft loss due to initial non-function or thrombosis, the indications hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), hepatitis-C-virus-related cirrhosis (HCV-cirrhosis) and all other indications, donor age > 53 years, the number of surgical complications, and operative durations > 4.5 h were identified as significant independent risk factors limiting survival. All of these factors except the duration of operation had also a significant independent influence on observed 15-year survival (AUROC = 0.739).

Recipients can exceptionally live longer than their normal life expectancy. Older recipients and patients with the indications HCC, HCV-cirrhosis, or other indications except PSC, should be transplanted with younger donor organs.