[6-year trial of a program for predicting the potential occurrence of myocardial infarct]

A six-year prospective study of 3775 individuals, first examined in 1978, using an original mathematical program of myocardial infarction risk prognosis, is reported. The program is based on an integral assessment of 19 risk factors, each having 4 degrees of severity. The subjects were allocated to one of 3 groups, depending on the prognostic risk score. In the low coronary risk group (2068 people), there was 1 (0.048%) myocardial infarction over 6 years. There were 12 (0.76%) infarctions in the medium risk group (1569 people), and 62 (44.92%) infarctions in the high risk group (138 people). Therefore, the program is capable of identifying a limited (about 4%) population that is going to develop 80% of all myocardial infarctions within the next 5 or 6 years.