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Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics
1Faculty of Architecture and Town Planning, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel.
Plos One
|April 6, 2018
Summary
Conservation planning must account for future uncertainty. An all-scenarios approach to selecting protected areas is more robust and effective for ensuring biodiversity persistence than relying on current conditions or specific future scenarios.
Area of Science:
- Conservation Science
- Ecology
- Environmental Planning
Background:
- Systematic conservation planning often overlooks future uncertainty, such as climate change.
- Protected area selection typically relies on current biodiversity data, neglecting dynamic environmental processes.
- Addressing future uncertainty is crucial for the long-term persistence of biodiversity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the robustness of different scenario-based approaches for conservation area selection.
- To evaluate the performance of conservation portfolios under future environmental change.
- To determine the optimal strategy for selecting robust conservation areas.
Main Methods:
- Simulated future urban development and vegetation dynamics using DINAMICA-EGO.
- Mapped species' habitat distribution under various scenarios.
- Utilized MARXAN software to identify conservation priority areas and construct portfolios.
- Assessed portfolio performance based on species representation targets across scenarios.
Main Results:
- The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed current distributions and specific-scenario portfolios.
- The all-scenarios approach demonstrated greater robustness to unexpected scenario realizations.
- On average, the all-scenarios portfolio met representation targets for approximately five more species than the current distributions portfolio.
Conclusions:
- Considering a broad set of plausible future scenarios is essential for effective conservation planning.
- Relying solely on current conditions or single-scenario predictions leads to less robust conservation outcomes.
- The all-scenarios portfolio approach provides a more resilient framework for long-term biodiversity conservation.
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