Modelling understorey dynamics in temperate forests under global change-Challenges and perspectives.

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Forest Science
• Ecosystem Dynamics

Background:

• Temperate forest understoreys are vital for plant diversity and ecosystem functions like nutrient cycling.
• Global change threatens understorey communities, potentially reducing their ecological roles.
• Predictive models are crucial for developing mitigation strategies, but current approaches are limited.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review existing understorey modeling approaches over the last three decades.
• To evaluate the capacity of these models to predict global change impacts.
• To identify needs for future model development.

Main Methods:

• Systematic review of fourteen understorey modeling approaches.
• Evaluation of model inclusion of key ecological mechanisms relevant to global change.
• Assessment of model coupling with overstorey dynamics.

Main Results:

• No reviewed model fully incorporates all essential ecological processes for predicting global change impacts.
• Existing models inadequately represent mechanisms driving understorey community change.
• Current models lack sufficient integration with overstorey dynamics.

Conclusions:

• New process-based models are essential for projecting global change effects on forest understoreys.
• Future models must integrate plant functional traits to capture community assembly and ecosystem functioning.
• Coupling understorey and overstorey models is critical for accurate predictions of temperate forest futures.