Risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism according to baseline risk factor profiles

The optimal duration of anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) is uncertain. In this prespecified analysis, we used data from 2 randomized trials, which compared once-daily rivaroxaban (20 mg or 10 mg) with aspirin (100 mg) or placebo for extended VTE treatment to estimate the risk of recurrence according to baseline risk factor profiles. Index VTE events were centrally classified as unprovoked, or provoked by major transient or persistent, or minor transient or persistent risk factors, and rates of recurrence at 1 year were calculated. A total of 2832 patients received rivaroxaban; 1131 received aspirin, and 590 received placebo. With unprovoked VTE, rates of recurrence in the 1173 patients given rivaroxaban, the 468 given aspirin, and the 243 given placebo were 2.0%, 5.9%, and 10.0%, respectively. There were no recurrences in patients with VTE provoked by major transient risk factors. With VTE provoked by minor persistent risk factors, recurrence rates in the 1184 patients given rivaroxaban, the 466 given aspirin, and the 248 given placebo were 2.4%, 4.5%, and 10.7%, respectively. For patients with minor transient risk factors, recurrence rates were 0.4% in the 268 patients given rivaroxaban, 4.2% in the 121 given aspirin, and 7.1% in the 56 given placebo. Recurrence rates in patients with VTE provoked by minor persistent or minor transient risk factors were not significantly lower than that with unprovoked VTE (hazard ratio [HR], 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56-1.16; and HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.32-1.30, respectively). Therefore, such patients may also benefit from extended anticoagulation therapy.