Prognostic value of selected risk scales in patients with end-stage heart failure

Wioletta Szczurek, Bożena Szyguła-Jurkiewicz1, Michał W Zakliczyński

  • 13rd Department of Cardiology, School of Medicine with the Division of Dentistry in Zabrze, Medical University of Silesia, Katowice, Poland. bjurkiewicz@sum.edu.pl.

Kardiologia Polska
|April 11, 2018
PubMed

Insights

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease eXcluding INR (MELD-XI) score better predicts one-year mortality in heart transplant candidates than the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS). The Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) scale showed comparable predictive value to HFSS.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Transplantation Medicine
  • Medical Informatics

Background:

  • Increasing orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT) waiting lists necessitate accurate patient risk stratification.
  • Identifying high-risk patients is crucial for efficient OHT resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the predictive accuracy of MELD-XI and MAGGIC scales for one-year mortality in OHT candidates.
  • To compare the prognostic performance of MELD-XI and MAGGIC against the HFSS.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective review of 370 adult ambulatory patients awaiting OHT (2012-2016).
  • Evaluation of MELD-XI, MAGGIC, and HFSS scoring systems.
  • Analysis of one-year mortality rates and predictive performance using Area Under the Curve (AUC).

Main Results:

  • Overall one-year mortality was 27.6%.
  • MELD-XI demonstrated a higher AUC (0.812) compared to HFSS (0.781).
  • MAGGIC (AUC 0.771) showed comparable predictive value to HFSS.

Conclusions:

  • Elevated MELD-XI and MAGGIC scores, and lower HFSS scores, correlate with increased one-year mortality risk.
  • MELD-XI offers superior prognostic utility over HFSS for OHT candidates.
  • MELD-XI and MAGGIC scales are valuable tools for risk stratification in heart transplant evaluation.
Abstract

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