First-year GFR slope and long-term renal outcome in IgA nephropathy

IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the most frequent primary glomerular disease and the leading cause of end-stage renal disease. We investigated clinicopathologic predictors of renal survival in patients with IgAN with a focus on glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline slope.

We screened all patients with primary IgAN between 1995 and 2012. Renal progression was defined as doubling of serum creatinine. Using serial serum creatinine levels during the first-year, we calculated the GFR decline slopes. Further, we defined patients in the steepest GFR slope quartile as rapid decliners and those in the second steepest GFR slope quartile as slow decliners. Others were defined as nondecliners.

Of 214 participants, baseline GFR was 81 (62, 100) mL/min/1.73 m² , which was not different among the 3 groups. Rapid decliners and slow decliners had higher levels of urinary protein/creatinine ratio (0.88, 0.89 and 0.58 g/gCr, respectively, P < .001). Five-year renal survival was 76% in rapid decliners, 91% in slow decliners and 100% in nondecliners (P < .001, rapid or slow decliners vs nondecliners). After adjustment for clinicopathologic variables, slow decliners were associated with an 8.8-fold higher risk of progression (P = .011), and rapid decliners were associated with a 10.2-fold increased risk of progression (P = .007) compared with nondecliners.

First-year GFR slope was associated with increased risk of renal progression, independent of proteinuria and histologic findings. Further studies are needed to investigate whether early GFR change can identify high-risk patients who benefit from immunosuppressive treatment in IgAN.