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Updated: Feb 11, 2026
06:46
Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Multiple Primary Colorectal Cancer Patients after Surgery
Published on: September 27, 2024
926
Predictive Nomograms for Synchronous Distant Metastasis in Rectal Cancer
Apostolos Gaitanidis1, Michail Alevizakos2, Alexandra Tsaroucha3
1Second Department of Surgery, University General Hospital of Alexandroupoli, Democritus University of Thrace Medical School, 681 00, Alexandroupoli, Greece. agaitanidis@gmail.com.
Summary
Predictive nomograms were developed to assess the probability of synchronous distant metastasis in rectal cancer patients. These tools help predict the likelihood of liver, lung, or bone metastasis for better patient management.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Medical Statistics
Background:
- Distant metastasis is a critical factor in rectal cancer prognosis.
- Quantitative assessment tools like nomograms can predict metastasis probability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop predictive nomograms for synchronous distant metastasis in rectal cancer patients.
- To identify key factors associated with the presence of distant metastasis.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database (2010-2014).
- Inclusion of 46,785 rectal cancer patients.
- Development of predictive models using demographic, clinical, and pathological variables.
Main Results:
- Identified 13.2% liver, 5.9% lung, and 1.3% bone metastasis.
- Age, sex, race, tumor characteristics, CEA levels, and metastasis were associated with distant disease.
- High c-indexes (0.99-1.0) indicate strong predictive accuracy for the developed models.
Conclusions:
- Developed predictive nomograms for synchronous liver, lung, and bone metastasis in rectal cancer.
- These nomograms can aid in predicting the probability of distant disease.
- Facilitates improved risk stratification and treatment planning for rectal cancer patients.
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