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Beyond R0 Maximisation: On Pathogen Evolution and Environmental Dimensions.

Sébastien Lion1, Johan A J Metz2

  • 1Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE, IRD, 1919, route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5, France.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Pathogen evolution does not always maximize the basic reproduction ratio (R₀). Instead, complex ecological interactions create multidimensional feedback loops, challenging the traditional R₀ maximization paradigm in pathogen evolution.

Keywords:
basic reproduction ratioenviromental feedbackevolutionary optimisationpathogen evolutionvirulence

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Epidemiology
  • Theoretical Ecology

Background:

  • A common assumption in evolutionary biology is that pathogens evolve to maximize their basic reproduction ratio (R₀).
  • Deviations from this principle are often treated as exceptions rather than fundamental limitations of the model.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To challenge the R₀ maximization paradigm in pathogen evolution.
  • To propose an alternative framework based on evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) arguments considering environmental feedback loop dimensions.

Main Methods:

  • Utilizing evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) theory.
  • Analyzing the 'dimension of the environmental feedback loop' in host-pathogen interactions.

Main Results:

  • The R₀ maximization paradigm is valid only for one-dimensional feedback loops, which exclude pathogen diversification.
  • Realistic host-pathogen interactions involve multidimensional feedback loops due to factors like density-dependent mortality, multiple infections, limited cross-immunity, multiple transmission routes, host heterogeneity, and spatial structure.

Conclusions:

  • The R₀ maximization principle is an oversimplification for most pathogen evolution scenarios.
  • A multidimensional feedback loop framework is necessary to accurately model pathogen evolution and diversification.