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Urbanization prolongs hantavirus epidemics in cities
Huaiyu Tian1, Shixiong Hu2, Bernard Cazelles3,4
1State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; tianhuaiyu@gmail.com gldlj@hotmail.com xiaohong.hnnu@gmail.com n.c.stenseth@ibv.uio.no.
Summary
Urbanization and migration drive hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) epidemics, showing a complex relationship with city growth. Understanding these links is crucial for controlling zoonotic diseases in developing regions.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Urbanization and migration significantly influence global disease patterns and mortality.
- The impact of urban living on communicable disease burden is debated, particularly in developing economies.
- Limited research exists on the intricate relationship between urbanization dynamics and disease transmission.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the spatiotemporal relationship between urbanization, population movement, and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) incidence in South China.
- To investigate the influence of economic development on HFRS epidemics in urbanizing areas.
- To understand the complex interplay between urbanization, migration, and hantavirus epidemiology.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a 48-year dataset (1963-2010) of HFRS incidence and population movements in South China.
- Conducted spatiotemporal analyses to correlate disease outbreaks with urbanization and migration patterns.
- Examined the relationship between HFRS incidence and urbanization, considering economic growth rates.
Main Results:
- HFRS epidemics were found to coincide with periods of urbanization, geographic expansion, and migrant movement.
- A biphasic inverted U-shaped relationship was observed between HFRS incidence and urbanization levels.
- Economic growth rates in cities were associated with varying endemic turning points for HFRS.
- Urbanizing cities with high economic growth showed extended epidemic periods for HFRS.
- Contrasting effects of urbanization on zoonotic disease outbreaks were noted during China's economic development.
Conclusions:
- Urbanization, migration, and hantavirus epidemiology are interconnected, influencing zoonotic disease dynamics.
- The findings provide insights into why urbanizing cities with rapid economic growth experience prolonged HFRS epidemics.
- Urbanization's impact on zoonotic diseases is complex and context-dependent, especially during economic development phases.
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