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Area of Science:

  • Financial Markets
  • Computational Finance
  • Digital Assets

Background:

  • Cryptocurrencies have seen increased interest and price volatility.
  • Observed correlations exist between cryptocurrency prices and online/social media factors.
  • Cryptocurrencies are susceptible to bubble-like price growth patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate if the relationship between online factors and cryptocurrency prices is dependent on market regime.
  • To analyze the co-movement between cryptocurrency prices and related online factors.
  • To explore the impact of market bubbles on these relationships.

Main Methods:

  • Wavelet coherence analysis to study price co-movement.
  • Application of a financial asset bubble test.
  • Examination of cryptocurrency price series and related online factors.

Main Results:

  • Medium-term positive correlations between online factors and price strengthen during bubble-like regimes.
  • Short-term relationships are often event-driven (e.g., security breaches) and inconsistent.
  • Wavelet coherence was applied to inter-cryptocurrency relationships for the first time.

Conclusions:

  • Market regime significantly impacts the correlation between online factors and cryptocurrency prices.
  • The strengthening of correlations during bubbles explains their transient nature.
  • Event-specific factors drive short-term price dynamics, while bubble phases amplify online influence.