Determinants of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis: A Nation-wide Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study

The aim of this study was to compare and validate the different classifications of severity in acute pancreatitis (AP) and to investigate which characteristics of the disease are associated with worse outcomes.

AP is a heterogeneous disease, ranging from uneventful cases to patients with considerable morbidity and high mortality rates. Severity classifications based on legitimate determinants of severity are important to correctly describe the course of disease.

A prospective multicenter cohort study involving patients with AP from 23 hospitals in Spain. The Atlanta Classification (AC), Revised Atlanta Classification (RAC), and Determinant-based Classification (DBC) were compared. Binary logistic multivariate analysis was performed to investigate independent determinants of severity.

A total of 1655 patients were included; 70 patients (4.2%) died. RAC and DBC were equally superior to AC for describing the clinical course of AP. Although any kind of organ failure was associated with increased morbidity and mortality, persistent organ failure (POF) was the most significant determinant of severity. All local complications were associated with worse outcomes. Infected pancreatic necrosis correlated with high morbidity, but in the presence of POF, it was not associated to higher mortality when compared with sterile necrotizing pancreatitis. Exacerbation of previous comorbidity was associated with increased morbidity and mortality.

The RAC and DBC both signify an advance in the description and differentiation of AP patients. Herein, we describe the complications of the disease independently associated to morbidity and mortality. Our findings are valuable not only when designing future studies on AP but also for the improvement of current classifications.