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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Change Biology
  • Evolutionary Biology

Background:

  • Climate change is increasing global temperatures, leading to phenological mismatches that disrupt trophic interactions.
  • Spatial variation in phenological synchrony has been overlooked, despite its importance for population dynamics and evolution.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate latitudinal trends in phenological mismatch within a UK oak-caterpillar-bird system.
  • To determine if spatial variation in phenological mismatch influences population trends.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized phenological data from an oak-caterpillar-bird system across the UK.
  • Analyzed latitudinal trends in the timing of leaf emergence, caterpillar biomass, and bird nestling demand.

Main Results:

  • Increasing latitude delayed phenology for all species, but more significantly for oak trees, shortening the interval between leaf emergence and peak caterpillar biomass in northern areas.
  • Phenological mismatch between caterpillar biomass and bird nestling demand intensified in warmer springs.
  • No significant spatial variation was found in the timing of bird nestling demand relative to caterpillar biomass.

Conclusions:

  • Phenological mismatch alone is unlikely to explain spatial variations in population trends.
  • Continued spring warming is predicted to increase phenological mismatch for temperate forest birds and their caterpillar prey.
  • The latitudinal invariance in mismatch direction may hinder spatial buffering but could drive rapid, spatially consistent evolutionary adaptation.