Tritrophic phenological match-mismatch in space and time

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Evolutionary Biology

Background:

• Climate change is increasing global temperatures, leading to phenological mismatches that disrupt trophic interactions.
• Spatial variation in phenological synchrony has been overlooked, despite its importance for population dynamics and evolution.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate latitudinal trends in phenological mismatch within a UK oak-caterpillar-bird system.
• To determine if spatial variation in phenological mismatch influences population trends.

Main Methods:

• Utilized phenological data from an oak-caterpillar-bird system across the UK.
• Analyzed latitudinal trends in the timing of leaf emergence, caterpillar biomass, and bird nestling demand.

Main Results:

• Increasing latitude delayed phenology for all species, but more significantly for oak trees, shortening the interval between leaf emergence and peak caterpillar biomass in northern areas.
• Phenological mismatch between caterpillar biomass and bird nestling demand intensified in warmer springs.
• No significant spatial variation was found in the timing of bird nestling demand relative to caterpillar biomass.

Conclusions:

• Phenological mismatch alone is unlikely to explain spatial variations in population trends.
• Continued spring warming is predicted to increase phenological mismatch for temperate forest birds and their caterpillar prey.
• The latitudinal invariance in mismatch direction may hinder spatial buffering but could drive rapid, spatially consistent evolutionary adaptation.