[Dynamic evolution of landscape spatial pattern in Taihu Lake basin, China]

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Geography
• Remote Sensing

Background:

• The Taihu Lake basin faces complex land-use dynamics impacting its ecological health.
• Understanding landscape pattern evolution is crucial for sustainable development and environmental management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the dynamic evolution of landscape spatial patterns in the Taihu Lake basin from 2000 to 2015.
• To investigate land-use transfer trends, particularly between cultivated and construction land.
• To project future landscape changes under different development scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Integration of landscape indices, dynamic change models, and landscape transfer matrices.
• Application of the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE-S) model for spatial pattern analysis.
• Utilizing land-use satellite image datasets from 2000, 2010, and 2015.

Main Results:

• Landscape fragmentation intensified between 2000 and 2015, with a uniform distribution trend.
• Significant decrease in cultivated land (-6761 km²) and increase in construction land (+6615.33 km²).
• Cultivated land was primarily converted to construction land (91.6% of cultivated land loss).

Conclusions:

• The Taihu Lake basin exhibits a clear trend of cultivated land conversion to construction land.
• Future land-use changes are projected to be most significant under a natural development scenario.
• Ecological protection and cultivated land protection scenarios offer pathways to mitigate negative impacts and promote sustainability.