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Ensembles of radar nowcasts and COSMO-DE-EPS for urban flood management
Alrun Jasper-Tönnies1, Sandra Hellmers2, Thomas Einfalt1
1hydro & meteo GmbH & Co. KG, Breite Str. 6-8, Lübeck D-23552, Germany
Abstract:
Sophisticated strategies are required for flood warning in urban areas regarding convective heavy rainfall events. An approach is presented to improve short-term precipitation forecasts by combining ensembles of radar nowcasts with the high-resolution numerical weather predictions COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service. The combined ensemble forecasts are evaluated and compared to deterministic precipitation forecasts of COSMO-DE. The results show a significantly improved quality of the short-term precipitation forecasts and great potential to improve flood warnings for urban catchments. The combined ensemble forecasts are produced operationally every 5 min. Applications involve the Flood Warning Service Hamburg (WaBiHa) and real-time hydrological simulations with the model KalypsoHydrology.
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