Urbanization and climate change implications in flood risk management: Developing an efficient decision support...

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Hydrology
• Climate Science

Background:

• Urbanization and climate change significantly impact flood risk globally.
• Egypt faces increasing challenges in managing water resources and flood events.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on flood risk in El-Beheira and Alexandria governorates, Egypt.
• To develop flood susceptibility maps for improved land use planning and disaster risk reduction.

Main Methods:

• Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms applied to rainfall and temperature data.
• Curve Number method used to generate surface runoff data (1948-2014).
• Geographic Information System (GIS) decision support system developed for flood susceptibility mapping.

Main Results:

• Significant decline in annual rainfall and anomaly post-1994, linked to climate change and urbanization.
• Despite decreased rainfall, surface runoff shows increasing trends since 1970 due to urbanization.
• Flood susceptibility maps reveal substantial areas with very high to high flood risk in both governorates, particularly in northern and northeastern regions.

Conclusions:

• Climate change and urbanization are exacerbating flood risks in the studied Egyptian governorates.
• Effective land use planning and flood damage mitigation strategies are crucial.
• The developed flood susceptibility maps provide essential data for informed decision-making.