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Updated: Feb 11, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Cost-effectiveness of unicompartmental compared with total knee replacement: a population-based study using data from
Edward Burn1, Alexander D Liddle1,2, Thomas W Hamilton1
1Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Objectives:
To assess the value for money of unicompartmental knee replacement (UKR) compared with total knee replacement (TKR).
Design:
A lifetime Markov model provided the framework for the analysis.
Setting:
Data from the National Joint Registry (NJR) for England and Wales primarily informed the analysis.
Participants:
Propensity score matched patients in the NJR who received either a UKR or TKR.
Interventions:
UKR is a less invasive alternative to TKR, where only the compartment affected by osteoarthritis is replaced.
Primary Outcome Measures:
Incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and healthcare system costs.
Results:
The provision of UKR is expected to lead to a gain in QALYs compared with TKR for all age and gender subgroups (male: <60 years: 0.12, 60-75 years: 0.20, 75+ years: 0.19; female: <60 years: 0.10, 60-75 years: 0.28, 75+ years: 0.44) and a reduction in costs (male: <60: £-1223, 60-75 years: £-1355, 75+ years: £-2005; female: <60 years: £-601, 60-75 years: £-935, 75+ years: £-1102 per patient over the lifetime). UKR is expected to lead to a reduction in QALYs compared with TKR when performed by surgeons with low UKR utilisation but an increase among those with high utilisation (<10%, median 6%: -0.04, ≥10%, median 27%: 0.26). Regardless of surgeon usage, costs associated with UKR are expected to be lower than those of TKR (<10%: £-127, ≥10%: £-758).
Conclusions:
UKR can be expected to generate better health outcomes and lower lifetime costs than TKR. Surgeon usage of UKR does, however, have a significant impact on the cost-effectiveness of the procedure. To achieve the best results, surgeons need to perform a sufficient proportion of knee replacements as UKR. Low usage surgeons may therefore need to broaden their indications for UKR.
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