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Downscaled rainfall projections in south Florida using self-organizing maps
Palash Sinha1, Michael E Mann1, Jose D Fuentes1
1The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
The Science of the Total Environment
|May 2, 2018
Summary
Future precipitation in southern Florida was projected using statistical downscaling. This study analyzed seasonal precipitation changes under various climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) for near and far future periods.
Area of Science:
- Climate science
- Hydrology
- Statistical modeling
Background:
- Southern Florida faces significant hydrological challenges.
- Accurate seasonal precipitation projections are crucial for water resource management and climate adaptation strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project future seasonal precipitation characteristics in southern Florida.
- To assess uncertainties associated with these projections under different climate scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Employed a statistical downscaling approach utilizing Self Organized Maps (SOMs).
- Analyzed 19 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.
- Generated a large ensemble of 28,500 daily precipitation realizations per season for historical and future periods.
- Examined three-month seasons (Sep-Nov, Dec-Feb, Mar-May, Jun-Aug) for near (2021-2050) and far (2071-2100) future under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios.
Main Results:
- Characterized most likely precipitation scenarios and their uncertainties using distribution centers and moments (25th and 75th percentiles).
- Applied the methodology to 30-year windows of daily mean precipitation for historical (1976-2005) and future climate projections.
Conclusions:
- The study provides detailed insights into potential shifts in southern Florida's seasonal precipitation patterns.
- The ensemble approach enhances the reliability of future climate projections for the region.
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