Hidden collapse is driven by fire and logging in a socioecological forest ecosystem

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Environmental Science
• Conservation Biology

Background:

• Terrestrial ecosystems globally face collapse risk.
• Most collapse descriptions are post hoc, lacking early warning indicators.
• Empirical evidence of ecosystems in collapse is scarce.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present evidence of the Australian Mountain Ash ecosystem collapsing.
• To identify characteristics of hidden collapse.
• To inform early-warning indicators and management strategies for ecosystem collapse.

Main Methods:

• Multidecadal and multifaceted monitoring of the Mountain Ash ecosystem.
• Analysis of changes in ecosystem condition, keystone populations, biodiversity, and processes.
• Documentation of collapse pathways and driver interactions.

Main Results:

• The Australian Mountain Ash ecosystem is demonstrably collapsing.
• Evidence of hidden collapse identified, characterized by apparent intactness despite inevitable decline.
• Decline in keystone structures, associated biodiversity, and ecosystem processes observed.
• Interacting drivers exacerbate and perpetuate collapse.

Conclusions:

• Multidecadal monitoring is vital for predicting ecosystem collapse.
• Early management interventions are necessary to avert hidden collapse.
• Management must address critical stressors and their feedback loops to prevent system-wide collapse.