[Synthetic duration curve method for the design of the lowest navigable water level with inconsistent characters in...

Under the influence of both global climate change and frequent human activities, the variability of second-moment in hydrological time series become obvious, indicating changes in the consistency of hydrological data samples. Therefore, the traditional hydrological series analysis methods, which only consider the variability of mean values, are not suitable for handling all hydrological non-consistency problems. Traditional synthetic duration curve methods for the design of the lowest navigable water level, based on the consistency of samples, would cause more risks to navigation, especially under low water level in dry seasons. Here, we detected both mean variation and variance variation using the hydrological variation diagnosis system. Furthermore, combing the principle of decomposition and composition of time series, we proposed the synthetic duration curve method for designing the lowest navigable water level with inconsistent characters in dry seasons. With the Yunjinghong Station in the Lancang River Basin as an example, we analyzed its designed water levels in the present, the distant past and the recent past, as well as the differences among three situations (i.e., considering second moment variation, only considering mean variation, not considering any variation). Results showed that variability of the second moment changed the trend of designed water levels alteration in the Yunjinghong Station. When considering the first two moments or just considering the mean variation, the difference ofdesigned water levels was as bigger as -1.11 m. When considering the first two moments or not, the difference of designed water levels was as bigger as -1.01 m. Our results indicated the strong effects of variance variation on the designed water levels, and highlighted the importance of the second moment variation analysis for the channel planning and design.