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Do Natural Disasters Affect Voting Behavior? Evidence from Croatian Floods
Kosta Bovan1, Benjamin Banai2, Irena Pavela Banai2
1University of Zagreb.
Plos Currents
|May 18, 2018
Summary
Voters did not punish politicians after natural disasters once researchers controlled for other factors. This study examined flood impacts on Croatian voting behavior, finding no significant effect on election outcomes after matching areas.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Environmental Psychology
- Disaster Studies
Background:
- Natural disasters can influence public perception of incumbent politicians.
- Previous studies have not fully addressed methodological issues in assessing this link.
- Croatia provides a unique context for studying disaster impacts on voting behavior.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate if voters punish politicians for uncontrollable events like natural disasters.
- To address methodological limitations in prior research on disaster impacts and political accountability.
- To examine the influence of floods on voting in Croatia, considering control variables and relief spending.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a matching method technique to compare affected and non-affected areas.
- Controlled for several variables to ensure accurate comparison between groups.
- Focused on the 2014 and 2015 Croatian floods as natural disaster cases.
Main Results:
- Initially, floods appeared to affect voting, with decreased support for incumbents in flooded areas.
- After accounting for control variables, the impact of floods on voting behavior disappeared.
- Government relief spending, in presence or amount, did not significantly influence voting behavior.
Conclusions:
- Floods did not demonstrably impact election outcomes in Croatia.
- Voter behavior is not significantly altered by natural disasters when controlling for confounding factors.
- Findings align with the retrospective voter model, suggesting voters evaluate incumbents based on perceived performance rather than uncontrollable events.
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