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How Safe Is Safe Enough for Self-Driving Vehicles?

Peng Liu1, Run Yang1, Zhigang Xu2

  • 1College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|May 22, 2018
PubMed
Summary

Determining the safety of self-driving vehicles (SDVs) is crucial. A new study found that the public expects SDVs to be significantly safer than human-driven vehicles (HDVs) to be socially acceptable.

Keywords:
Broadly acceptable risk criterionexpressed-preference approachself-driving vehiclessocially acceptable risktolerable risk criterion

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Area of Science:

  • Transportation engineering
  • Human-computer interaction
  • Risk analysis

Background:

  • Self-driving vehicles (SDVs) offer the potential to significantly reduce traffic accidents.
  • A critical question for public acceptance and regulation is defining the acceptable safety threshold for SDVs.
  • Existing research lacks a clear methodology for quantifying socially acceptable risk levels for autonomous systems.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and validate a novel expressed-preference approach for determining the socially acceptable risk of SDVs.
  • To compare the required safety levels of SDVs against human-driven vehicles (HDVs).
  • To provide data-driven insights for regulatory bodies establishing SDV safety standards.

Main Methods:

  • A between-subject survey involving 499 participants was conducted.
  • Respondents' risk-acceptance rates for various traffic-risk frequencies were assessed.
  • Logarithmic regression models were used to analyze the relationship between risk frequency and acceptance, comparing SDVs and HDVs.

Main Results:

  • SDVs were found to require a higher safety standard compared to HDVs.
  • Two distinct risk-acceptance criteria were identified: tolerable risk (SDVs 4-5 times safer than HDVs) and broadly acceptable risk (SDV risk two orders of magnitude lower than HDVs).
  • The study established quantitative benchmarks for public perception of SDV safety.

Conclusions:

  • The expressed-preference approach provides a viable method for assessing socially acceptable risk for emerging technologies like SDVs.
  • Public perception necessitates significantly higher safety margins for SDVs than for current human-driven vehicles.
  • These findings can inform regulatory frameworks for ensuring the safe deployment of autonomous driving technology.