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Why, so far, have epidemics always eventually petered out? Quasispecies theory suggests a (testable!) answer
Andreas Dress1,2,3
1CAS-MPG Partner Institute for Computational Biology, Shanghai, China. andreas@mathematik.uni-bielefeld.de.
European Biophysics Journal : EBJ
|May 23, 2018
Summary
Epidemics eventually end because infectious agents mutate, creating a "quasispecies." This diversity acts as a natural vaccination, preventing widespread outbreaks and explaining epidemic extinction.
Area of Science:
- Virology
- Evolutionary Biology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Historical epidemics like the Plague of Athens and Justinian Plague eventually subsided.
- The Hong Kong Flu of 1968/69 also eventually ceased to be a major threat.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explain the natural extinction of past epidemics.
- To apply Manfred Eigen's quasispecies concept to understanding epidemic dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing Manfred Eigen's quasispecies concept.
- Analyzing data from recent epidemics.
- Employing Daniel Huson's SplitsTree software for data visualization.
Main Results:
- The quasispecies concept explains how viral mutations lead to diverse variants within hosts.
- These variants can act as a form of natural vaccination.
- Data visualization supports the role of quasispecies diversity in epidemic decline.
Conclusions:
- The natural petering out of epidemics is explained by the evolution of infectious agent quasispecies.
- Viral diversity within hosts provides a mechanism for self-limiting outbreaks.
- This evolutionary perspective offers insights into epidemic control and prevention.
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