Long-Term Ambient Temperature and Externalizing Behaviors in Adolescents

Area of Science:

• Environmental Epidemiology
• Developmental Psychology
• Climate Science

Background:

• The relationship between climate and violence is debated, with limited longitudinal, individual-level data.
• Existing evidence often relies on ecological or cross-sectional studies, lacking long-term exposure insights.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the association between long-term ambient temperature exposure and externalizing behaviors in urban adolescents.
• To provide individual-level, longitudinal evidence on the climate-aggression link.

Main Methods:

• Longitudinal study of 1,287 adolescents (aged 9-18) in California (2000-2012).
• Repeated assessments of externalizing behaviors (aggression, delinquency) and ambient temperature data.
• Adjusted multilevel models to analyze associations with lagged temperature exposure.

Main Results:

• Significant increase in aggressive behaviors with rising average temperatures over 1-3 preceding years (equivalent to 1.5-3.0 years delay in maturation).
• Associations were stronger for girls and lower socioeconomic status families.
• Adverse effects diminished in neighborhoods with greater green space.
• No significant association found between temperature and delinquency.

Conclusions:

• This study offers the first individual-level epidemiologic evidence linking long-term ambient temperature exposure to increased aggression in adolescents.
• Findings suggest climate change may exacerbate aggression, with differential impacts based on social and environmental factors.
• Future research on climate and collective violence can benefit from similar longitudinal, individual-level methodologies.