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Climate change and economic growth: a heterogeneous panel data approach
Tiago Neves Sequeira1,2, Marcelo Serra Santos3,4, Manuela Magalhães4,5
1Departamento de Gestão e Economia, Universidade da Beira Interior, Avenida Marques d'Avila e Bolama, 6200-001, Covilhã, Portugal. sequeira@ubi.pt.
Summary
Global climate change impacts economic growth differently across nations. Rising temperatures did not hinder global per capita GDP growth in the late 20th century, but negatively affected poorer nations, while increased precipitation aided them.
Area of Science:
- Environmental economics
- Climate change economics
- Global economic analysis
Background:
- Climate change is a significant global phenomenon with potential economic consequences.
- Previous studies often overlooked the global, interconnected nature of climate change effects on economies.
- Understanding the nuanced relationship between climate variables and economic growth is crucial for policy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To conduct an econometric analysis of climate change's impact on economic growth, considering global common effects.
- To re-evaluate the effect of rising temperatures on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita globally.
- To investigate differential impacts on countries based on income level and climate zone.
Main Methods:
- Econometric analysis incorporating time-varying global effects.
- Analysis of real GDP per capita growth data.
- Stratification of analysis by country income level (poor vs. others) and climate zone (hot, temperate).
Main Results:
- Rising global temperatures did not decrease real GDP per capita growth worldwide in the second half of the 20th century.
- Rising temperatures negatively impacted economic growth in poorer countries.
- Increased precipitation showed a positive effect on economic growth in poorer, hot, and temperate countries.
Conclusions:
- The global impact of rising temperatures on economic growth is not uniformly negative.
- Poorer nations exhibit distinct vulnerabilities and benefits from climate change variables.
- Precipitation changes present a potential mitigating factor for economic growth in specific country groups.
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