Autonomous vehicles are cost-effective when used as taxis

Area of Science:

• Transportation technology
• Public health
• Health economics

Background:

• Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are poised to significantly impact public health and well-being in the United States.
• Assessing the safety and affordability of AVs is crucial for understanding their adoption timeline.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the time-to-adoption for autonomous vehicles (AVs).
• To determine when AVs will become sufficiently safe and affordable for widespread use.
• To analyze the cost-effectiveness of AV adoption.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Waymo (formerly Google Self-Driving Car Project) data.
• Employed a microsimulation model to project costs and safety.
• Evaluated adoption speed based on current and future scenarios (5 years).

Main Results:

• Private AV adoption shows a high initial ICER (cost per QALY gained), decreasing significantly in 5 years.
• AV taxis present a more cost-effective and potentially safer alternative to human-piloted taxis.
• Current data suggests AV taxis are economically viable for adoption.

Conclusions:

• Immediate adoption of AVs as taxis is economically sensible.
• Widespread adoption for private family use is not imminent.
• Urgent need for legislation to maximize AV taxi benefits and mitigate health risks.