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The 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar: Data descriptions and epidemic modelling
Van Kinh Nguyen1, César Parra-Rojas1, Esteban A Hernandez-Vargas1
1Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, Ruth-Moufang-Str. 1, 60438, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
Epidemics
|June 6, 2018
Summary
Madagascar
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Diseases
- Public Health
Background:
- Madagascar experienced a significant plague outbreak from August to November 2017.
- The region faces annual plague occurrences, indicating endemicity and risk of future epidemics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar.
- To estimate plague transmission parameters using statistical and mathematical models.
- To identify key drivers of plague transmission for future prevention.
Main Methods:
- Collected real-time data from official reports during the outbreak.
- Described the epidemiological characteristics of the plague cases.
- Employed statistical and mathematical modeling to estimate transmission parameters.
Main Results:
- The 2017 outbreak involved 2417 cases and 209 deaths, with pneumonic plague showing multiple peaks.
- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) ranged from 5 to 7, indicating high transmissibility.
- Small probabilities of flea exposure and bubonic-to-pneumonic transition, coupled with high human-to-human transmission, can fuel large outbreaks.
Conclusions:
- Human-to-human transmission is critical for preventing large-scale plague outbreaks.
- While controlling rodents and fleas is important, managing human transmission is paramount.
- Findings highlight the need for integrated strategies focusing on both vector control and human transmission dynamics.
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