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Modeling Ozone in the Eastern U.S. using a Fuel-Based Mobile Source Emissions Inventory.

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U.S. emission inventories may overestimate nitrogen oxides (NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO). A new fuel-based inventory (FIVE) suggests lower mobile source emissions, which could aid in meeting stricter ozone (O3) standards.

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Area of Science:

  • Atmospheric Chemistry
  • Environmental Science
  • Air Quality Modeling

Background:

  • Current U.S. emission inventories may overestimate nitrogen oxides (NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO).
  • Mobile source emissions are a significant contributor to air pollution and ozone formation.
  • Accurate emission inventories are crucial for developing effective air quality management strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To expand a fuel-based inventory of motor-vehicle emissions (FIVE) to the continental U.S. for 2013.
  • To evaluate FIVE estimates against the U.S. EPA's National Emissions Inventory (NEI).
  • To assess the impact of mobile source NOx uncertainties on ozone (O3) levels in the Eastern U.S.

Main Methods:

  • Development and expansion of the FIVE model for U.S. motor-vehicle emissions.
  • Comparison of FIVE estimates with the NEI for NOx and CO.
  • Utilizing a chemical transport model to simulate urban NOx and CO levels.
  • Sensitivity analysis of ozone formation to mobile source NOx and biogenic VOC emissions.

Main Results:

  • The NEI estimates for mobile source NOx and CO were higher than FIVE by 28% and 90%, respectively.
  • Modeled urban NOx and CO from FIVE aligned with measurements from the Southeast Nexus (SENEX) Study.
  • Ground-level ozone (O3) in the Eastern U.S. showed sensitivity to reductions in mobile source NOx emissions.
  • Reductions in mobile source NOx were most impactful in the Southeastern U.S. during ozone exceedance events.

Conclusions:

  • Mobile source emissions of NOx and CO may be overestimated in current U.S. inventories.
  • The FIVE model provides a potentially more accurate assessment of mobile source emissions.
  • Reducing mobile source NOx emissions can be an effective strategy for meeting future, more stringent ozone standards.