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Published on: July 20, 2022
Use of Biomarkers to Predict Specific Causes of Death in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation
Abhinav Sharma1, Ziad Hijazi2, Ulrika Andersson2
1Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC (A.S., S.M.A.-K., R.D.L., J.H.A., C.B.G.).
Insights
Biomarkers like troponin T and NT-proBNP strongly predict specific causes of death in atrial fibrillation patients. These findings may help identify high-risk individuals for targeted interventions.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Biomarker Research
- Clinical Trials
Background:
- Atrial fibrillation increases mortality risk.
- Established biomarkers predict cardiovascular events and death in anticoagulated AF patients.
- Prognostic value of these biomarkers for specific causes of death remains unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the prognostic utility of high-sensitivity troponin T, growth differentiation factor-15, NT-proBNP, and interleukin-6 for cause-specific death in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation patients.
- To determine if these biomarkers can improve risk stratification for different causes of death.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of data from 14,798 patients in the ARISTOTLE trial (apixaban vs. warfarin for AF).
- Biomarkers measured at randomization; median follow-up of 1.9 years.
- Cox models used to identify independent predictors of cause-specific mortality.
Main Results:
- Biomarkers were strong predictors of cause-specific death.
- Troponin T strongly predicted sudden death (HR 1.48) and stroke/systemic embolism death (HR 1.45).
- NT-proBNP predicted heart failure death (HR 1.62), and growth differentiation factor-15 predicted bleeding death (HR 1.72).
- Adding biomarkers to clinical variables improved risk discrimination for all cause-specific deaths.
Conclusions:
- Biomarkers are potent predictors of cause-specific mortality in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation patients.
- These biomarkers may enhance risk assessment, aiding in the identification of patients prone to specific fatal outcomes.
- Further research could leverage these biomarkers for personalized risk management in atrial fibrillation.
Background:
Atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased risk of death. High-sensitivity troponin T, growth differentiation factor-15, NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), and interleukin-6 levels are predictive of cardiovascular events and total cardiovascular death in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation. The prognostic utility of these biomarkers for cause-specific death is unknown.
Methods:
The ARISTOTLE trial (Apixaban for the Prevention of Stroke in Subjects With Atrial Fibrillation) randomized 18 201 patients with atrial fibrillation to apixaban or warfarin. Biomarkers were measured at randomization in 14 798 patients (1.9 years median follow-up). Cox models were used to identify clinical variables and biomarkers independently associated with each specific cause of death.
Results:
In total, 1272 patients died: 652 (51%) cardiovascular, 32 (3%) bleeding, and 588 (46%) noncardiovascular/nonbleeding deaths. Among cardiovascular deaths, 255 (39%) were sudden cardiac deaths, 168 (26%) heart failure deaths, and 106 (16%) stroke/systemic embolism deaths. Biomarkers were the strongest predictors of cause-specific death: a doubling of troponin T was most strongly associated with sudden death (hazard ratio [HR], 1.48; P<0.001), NT-proBNP with heart failure death (HR, 1.62; P<0.001), and growth differentiation factor-15 with bleeding death (HR, 1.72; P=0.028). Prior stroke/systemic embolism (HR, 2.58; P>0.001) followed by troponin T (HR, 1.45; P<0.0029) were the most predictive for stroke/ systemic embolism death. Adding all biomarkers to clinical variables improved discrimination for each cause-specific death.
Conclusions:
Biomarkers were some of the strongest predictors of cause-specific death and may improve the ability to discriminate among patients' risks for different causes of death. These data suggest a potential role of biomarkers for the identification of patients at risk for different causes of death in patients anticoagulated for atrial fibrillation.
Clinical Trial Registration:
URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00412984.
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