Modeling the impact of biolarvicides on malaria transmission

Biolarvicides are in use in several parts of the world for malaria vector control. We propose a five compartment dynamical systems model to study malaria transmission when biolarvicides are administered, to study the impact of this environmentally safe method on malaria spread. A comprehensive analysis of the model is presented. Model analysis shows that the basic reproductive rate R is larger in the absence of biolarvicides as compared to their presence. Theoretical analysis is corroborated by data from field studies. We show that there exist intermediate parameter regimes that separate disease-free and endemic states, which can in turn be modulated by biolarvicide use. Using Latin hypercube sampling we study the sensitivity of the model to parameter value changes. Calibration of our model to mosquito population and biolarvicide data for indoor and outdoors scenarios, yield parameter values hitherto not available or measurable. We validate our model with malaria incidence data from a region in India and provide predictions for malaria incidence in the presence and absence of biolarvicide. This model provides a prognostic tool to field work involving biolarvicide use in control of malaria.