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Updated: Feb 8, 2026

Local Anesthetic Thoracoscopy for Undiagnosed Pleural Effusion
Published on: November 10, 2023
Development and validation of response markers to predict survival and pleurodesis success in patients with malignant
Ioannis Psallidas1, Nikolaos I Kanellakis1, Stephen Gerry2
1Oxford Centre for Respiratory Medicine, Churchill Hospital, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, UK; Laboratory of Pleural and Lung Cancer Translational Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Oxford Respiratory Trials Unit, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
The PROMISE score, combining clinical and biological factors, accurately predicts 3-month mortality in malignant pleural effusion patients. This validated tool aids in treatment planning and prognosis assessment.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Pulmonology
- Biomarker Discovery
Background:
- Malignant pleural effusion (MPE) prevalence is rising globally.
- Prognostic biomarkers for MPE treatment planning and disease progression are lacking.
Purpose of the Study:
- Discover, validate, and assess biomarkers for survival and pleurodesis response in MPE.
- Develop a predictive score for MPE survival.
Main Methods:
- Utilized five independent datasets from randomized controlled trials.
- Mass spectrometry identified differential protein expression in pleural fluid.
- Developed a predictive model for 3-month mortality using clinical, radiological, and biological variables via least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression.
Main Results:
- Identified 17 survival and 7 pleurodesis biomarker candidates.
- Gelsolin, MIF, versican, and TIMP1 accurately predicted survival; pleurodesis biomarkers failed validation.
- Developed the PROMISE score using eight variables, achieving strong discrimination in internal (C-statistic 0.78) and external (C-statistic 0.89) validation.
Conclusions:
- The PROMISE score is the first prospectively validated prognostic model for MPE.
- It integrates biological and clinical parameters to estimate 3-month mortality.
- The score is robust, clinically relevant, and can guide management strategies.
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