Estimation of CO₂ emissions from heavy-duty vehicles in Korea and potential for reduction based on scenario analysis

Estimations of CO₂ emissions and the potential to reduce heavy-duty vehicles in Korea under different reduction scenarios are presented in this paper. Technologically achievable CO₂ reduction rates are applied to four scenarios: the business as usual (BAU) scenario, mild scenario, normal scenario, and aggressive scenario. In estimating CO₂ emissions, a simulation model based on longitudinal vehicle dynamics was used in cooperation with average vehicle mileage traveled and the number of registered Korean heavy-duty vehicles. In the BAU scenario, which is the reference scenario, 30.82 million tons of CO₂ will be emitted in 2030, and CO₂ emissions will be reduced by 2.1%, 4%, and 5%, respectively, in mild, normal, and aggressive scenarios. In 2040, the reduction effects of these scenarios will be 5.7%, 10.9%, and 15.8%, respectively. These results indicate the range of available potential reduction of CO₂ by technical improvements or the CO₂ emission regulation of heavy-duty vehicles in Korea.