Modeling spatial risk of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Central Iran

Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL) is one of the endemic diseases in central part of Iran. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to find the areas with a higher risk of infection considering the distribution of vector, reservoir hosts and human infection. Passive data recorded the positive cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Yazd province health center were collected for 10 years, from 2007 to 2016 at the County level. Considering all earlier studies conducted in Yazd province, records of Phlebotomus papatasi, the main vector of ZCL, and Rhombomys opimus, the main reservoir of ZCL, were collected and entered in a database. ArcGIS and MaxEnt model were used to map and predict the best ecological niches for both vector and reservoir. The most cumulative incidence of the disease was found to be in Khatam County, south of Yazd province. The area under curve (AUC) for R. opimus and P. papatasi was 0.955 and 0.914, respectively. We found higher presence probability of both vector and reservoir in central and eastern parts of the province. The jackknife test indicated that temperature and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) had the most effect on the model for the vector and reservoir, respectively. The areas with higher presence probability for the reservoirs and vectors were considered having the higher potential for ZCL transmission. These findings can be used to prevent and control the disease.