The Operational Development and Empirical Testing of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18)

The Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18) is a structured professional judgment instrument for threat assessment of the individual terrorist. It is a rationally derived theoretical model comprising eight proximal warning behaviors and 10 distal characteristics. Empirical research on the TRAP-18 is reviewed, including both nomothetic and idiographic studies of individual terrorists in both the United States and Europe. Mean interrater reliability is 0.895 (Cohen's kappa), ranging from 0.69 to 1.0. Evidence of criterion validity has been demonstrated, including usefulness of the instrument across various extremist ideologies (jihadism, ethnic nationalism, and single-issue), and its ability to discriminate between thwarted and successful attackers. The instrument appears to advance the domain recommendations of Monahan (2012, 2016) for the risk assessment of the individual terrorist. The TRAP-18 is further discussed as a threat assessment instrument for mental health clinicians. The limitations of the current research provide direction for further studies to assess its reliability and construct, discriminant, and predictive validity.