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Related Experiment Video

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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Published on: July 24, 2016

Eliciting improved quantitative judgements using the IDEA protocol: A case study in natural resource management.

Victoria Hemming¹, Terry V Walshe², Anca M Hanea^1,2

¹The Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, The School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

|June 23, 2018

Summary

Structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol improved the accuracy of judgements for natural resource management decisions. Group judgements aggregated from diverse experts consistently outperformed individuals, enhancing decision-making evidence.

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Area of Science:

Environmental Science
Decision Science
Ecology

Background:

Expert judgment is crucial for natural resource management but often relies on informal methods.
Structured approaches can improve expert judgment quality but lack practical examples.

Purpose of the Study:

To demonstrate the application of the IDEA protocol for structured expert elicitation in natural resource management.
To assess the protocol's effectiveness under operational constraints.

Main Methods:

Applied the IDEA (Investigate, Discuss, Estimate, Aggregate) protocol to elicit expert judgments on 14 future events in the Great Barrier Reef.
Recruited 76 participants, randomly allocated to eight groups for remote elicitation.
Scored participant judgments on accuracy, calibration, and informativeness against realized events.

Main Results:

The IDEA protocol proved practical, cost-effective, and repeatable for remote elicitation of quantitative estimates and uncertainty.
Aggregated group judgments generally outperformed individual judgments.
A modified Delphi approach reduced ambiguity and improved judgment quality.

Conclusions:

Structured expert elicitation protocols, like IDEA, are valuable for improving the evidence base in natural resource management.
The protocol facilitates review, appraisal, and replication, essential for using expert judgment in place of data.
Decision-makers should adopt structured elicitation to enhance the reliability of expert-based decisions.