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A mathematical approach to study and forecast racial groups interactions: deterministic modeling and scenario method.

Goran Dominioni1, Addolorata Marasco2, Alessandro Romano3,4

  • 11Rotterdam Institute of Law and Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Burgemeester Oudlaan 50, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

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Summary

This study introduces a new model to understand racial interactions and socioeconomic status (SES) in diverse societies. It forecasts how these dynamics may evolve, offering insights into group relations.

Keywords:
Deterministic modelingLogit modelLotka–Volterra systemsRacial interactionsScenario method

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Area of Science:

  • Sociology
  • Computational Social Science
  • Demography

Background:

  • Increasing globalization and migration drive ethnic and racial diversity.
  • Existing models struggle to capture complex multi-group interactions.
  • Socioeconomic status (SES) is a key factor in understanding racial group dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a novel framework for analyzing multi-racial interactions.
  • To introduce an aggregate, contextual, and continuous SES index.
  • To forecast the evolution of racial group SES and intergroup relations.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a new SES index incorporating income, employment, life expectancy, and group size.
  • Utilized a Lotka-Volterra system, adapted for a logit model of group SES.
  • Applied the methodology to US racial dynamics (Asians, Blacks, Natives, Whites) from 2002-2013.

Main Results:

  • The study quantifies the interactions among major racial groups in the US.
  • Forecasts predict the future SES of different racial groups.
  • Projected trends in interracial relations under various scenarios.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed Lotka-Volterra model effectively captures complex racial dynamics.
  • The SES index provides a nuanced understanding of group status.
  • The findings offer valuable insights for social policy and future research on diversity.