Climate change leads to accelerated transformation of high-elevation vegetation in the central Alps

High mountain ecosystems and their biota are governed by low-temperature conditions and thus can be used as indicators for climate warming impacts on natural ecosystems, provided that long-term data exist. We used data from the largest alpine to nival permanent plot site in the Alps, established in the frame of the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA) on Schrankogel in the Tyrolean Alps, Austria, in 1994, and resurveyed in 2004 and 2014. Vascular plant species richness per plot increased over the entire period, albeit to a lesser extent in the second decade, because disappearance events increased markedly in the latter period. Although presence/absence data could only marginally explain range shift dynamics, changes in species cover and plant community composition indicate an accelerating transformation towards a more warmth-demanding and more drought-adapted vegetation, which is strongest at the lowest, least rugged subsite. Divergent responses of vertical distribution groups of species suggest that direct warming effects, rather than competitive displacement, are the primary causes of the observed patterns. The continued decrease in cryophilic species could imply that trailing edge dynamics proceed more rapidly than successful colonisation, which would favour a period of accelerated species declines.