Disease outbreak thresholds emerge from interactions between movement behavior, landscape structure, and epidemiology

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Epidemiology
• Computational Biology

Background:

• Conflicting evidence exists on whether spatial heterogeneity affects pathogen persistence.
• Limited theoretical work explores host movement and resource distribution impacts on disease dynamics.
• Resource heterogeneity can cause nonlinear or counterintuitive disease outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a theoretical framework investigating host movement, landscape heterogeneity, and pathogen dynamics.
• To explore how resource abundance and clustering influence infectious disease spread.
• To create testable predictions for specific host-pathogen systems.

Main Methods:

• Developed an individual-based model integrating movement ecology.
• Simulated host movement across landscapes with varying resource heterogeneity (abundance and clustering).
• Analyzed the impact of host perceptual range, conspecific density, and recovery rates.

Main Results:

• Fragmentation generally promoted pathogen persistence across most parameter spaces.
• This finding was contingent on host perceptual range, conspecific density, and recovery rate.
• Complex dynamics emerged with high density, slow recovery, and large perceptual ranges, altering fragmentation's effect.

Conclusions:

• Host movement behavior and landscape structure interact significantly to influence pathogen dynamics.
• Fragmentation's role in disease persistence is context-dependent, not universally promoting or impeding.
• Integrating movement ecology and landscape structure is crucial for predicting infectious disease spread.