Using simulation modelling to test the impact of future demand for end-of-life care

Health systems globally are exploring new models of care to address the increasing demand for palliative, hospice, and end-of-life care. Yet few tools exist at the population level to explore "what if" scenarios and test, in a "cost avoidance environment," the impact of these new care models on policy, workforce, technology, and funding. This article introduces the application of scenario-based "what if" thinking and discrete event simulation in strategic planning for a not-for-profit hospice organization. It will describe how a set of conceptual models was designed to frame discussions between strategic partners about the implications and alternatives in implementing a new, integrated service model for palliative and end-of-life care.