Estimating the osteolysis-free life of a total hip prosthesis depending on the linear wear rate and head size

We present a model to estimate the osteolysis-free life of total hip arthroplasty, depending on linear wear rate and femoral head size. An estimate of the radiologic osteolysis threshold was calculated, which was based on volumetric wear. The osteolysis-free life of the cup was estimated from the quotient of the osteolysis threshold and volumetric wear rate, which was calculated from the linear wear rate. The impact of the direction of linear wear was determined by sensitivity analysis. From our review, we calculated a weighted mean polyethylene volume of approximately 670 mm³ as osteolysis threshold. Osteolysis-free life of less than 20 years was estimated for linear wear rates of 50 µm/year for head sizes of 32 mm or more, or for linear wear rates of 100 µm/year for any head size. For head sizes of 36 and 40 mm with a linear wear rate of 50 µm/year, the osteolysis-free period is estimated to be only 14.10 and 11.42 years, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed reasonably robust results. With the aim of osteolysis-free life of more than 20 years, our study presents a viable model to determine maximum possible head size for articulations. Osteolysis-free period for 36 and 40 mm head sizes are far too low for conventional polyethylenes. As the threshold wear volume for highly crosslinked polyethylene is, as of yet, unknown, more research is warranted before our model can be generalized to XLPE.