Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Zika and Dengue Infections within Colombia

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Zika virus disease (ZVD) and dengue pose significant public health challenges.
• Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of these diseases is crucial for effective control.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the parallel relative risk of ZVD and dengue using spatio-temporal models.
• To analyze disease transmission patterns in a department and a city in Colombia during the 2015-2016 ZVD outbreak.

Main Methods:

• Application of integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) for parameter estimation.
• Utilizing epidemiological week (EW) as the time measure.
• Development of spatio-temporal interaction effects models at both departmental and city levels.

Main Results:

• Departmental level: Dengue or ZVD risk was associated with risk in the same municipality during preceding EWs.
• City level: Risk was associated with neighboring sectors in the same and preceding EWs.
• Models provided smoothed risk estimates, credible intervals, and probabilities of high risk.

Conclusions:

• Spatio-temporal models effectively capture disease transmission dynamics.
• These models generate valuable epidemiological information for public health interventions.
• Understanding localized and temporal risk factors is key for disease management.